Jimmy Garoppolo Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jimmy Garoppolo

NFL · Player Props

Jimmy Garoppolo

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Completions

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Jimmy Garoppolo Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-123/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in football.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most on-target passers in the league this year with a terrific 67.1% Completion%, checking in at the 82nd percentile.
The Miami Dolphins linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The 49ers have been the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jimmy Garoppolo to attempt 33.5 passes this week, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.

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