Jerry Jeudy Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jerry Jeudy

NFL · Player Props

Jerry Jeudy

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 8:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerry Jeudy Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -162 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Broncos, who are giant -7-point underdogs.
The projections expect Jerry Jeudy to notch 7.0 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 75th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Jerry Jeudy's 55.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the league: 82nd percentile for wideouts.
Jerry Jeudy's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 67.4% to 72.1%.

Favors Under

The model projects the Broncos to call the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Broncos this year (just 51.1 per game on average).
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (just 32.9 per game) this year.
This year, the imposing Kansas City Chiefs defense has given up a measly 59.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 5th-lowest rate in football.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Kansas City's collection of CBs has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 9th-best in football.

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