Jerry Jeudy Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jerry Jeudy

NFL · Player Props

Jerry Jeudy

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Jerry Jeudy Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+107/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +112 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect Jerry Jeudy to accrue 6.9 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
Jerry Jeudy's 60.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in football: 86th percentile for WRs.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (76%) to wideouts this year (76.0%).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive scheme to skew 1.5% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Broncos to pass on 57.3% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 60.8 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week.
The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (only 52.2 per game on average).
Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Bills, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.6 per game) this year.

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