Jerry Jeudy Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jerry Jeudy

NFL · Player Props

Jerry Jeudy

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 7, 2022 12:20 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerry Jeudy Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-120/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jerry Jeudy to accrue 7.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Jerry Jeudy to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack this week (22.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.8% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Jerry Jeudy's play as a receiver has diminished this year, totaling just 2.7 yards per game vs 3.8 last year.
Jerry Jeudy's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.0% to 51.3%.

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