Jerry Jeudy Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Jerry Jeudy

NFL · Player Props

Jerry Jeudy

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerry Jeudy Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-102/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +106 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jerry Jeudy to earn 8.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
Jerry Jeudy has been a big part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 20.2% this year, which places him in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
Jerry Jeudy has been among the leading WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 4.1 receptions per game while grading out in the 75th percentile.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 4th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jerry Jeudy's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.0% to 65.3%.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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