Jerry Jeudy Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jerry Jeudy

NFL · Player Props

Jerry Jeudy

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 18, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerry Jeudy Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+229/-359).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +246 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +229.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jerry Jeudy has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 17.9% this year, which ranks him in the 78th percentile among wideouts.
Jerry Jeudy has compiled significantly more air yards this season (75.0 per game) than he did last season (57.0 per game).
The Denver Broncos O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

Jerry Jeudy's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.0% to 49.6%.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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