Jerry Jeudy Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Jerry Jeudy

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Jerry Jeudy Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+253/-412).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +261 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +253.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jerry Jeudy to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (16.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Completion% in the NFL (67.6%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (67.6%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers profile as the 7th-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Denver Broncos O-line has afforded their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.4 plays per game.
Jerry Jeudy's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 70.0% to 43.1%.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed the 3rd-least TDs through the air in the NFL to wideouts: 0.70 per game since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.