Jerome Ford Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Jerome Ford

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 22, 2024 3:36 PM EST

Analysis

Jerome Ford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 54.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 138.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The highest number of plays in football have been run by the Browns this year (a colossal 62.1 per game on average).
The leading projections forecast Jerome Ford to be a more important option in his team's ground game in this game (52.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (30.5% in games he has played).
Jerome Ford's rushing effectiveness has been refined this season, accumulating 4.68 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.62 mark last season.
Opposing squads have run for the 10th-most adjusted yards in the league (130 per game) versus the Bengals defense this year.

Favors Under

The Browns may rely on the pass game less in this game (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
This week's line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Browns, who are massive -10-point underdogs.
The model projects the Browns to be the least run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 36.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Bengals linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.