Jerome Ford Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jerome Ford

NFL · Player Props

Jerome Ford

RB · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerome Ford Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 66.1 plays per game.
Jerome Ford's 16.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 84th percentile for RBs.
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
This year, the feeble Cardinals pass defense has yielded a whopping 89.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 5th-biggest rate in football.
When it comes to defensive tackles rushing the passer, Arizona's DT corps has been very bad this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

This game's line implies an extreme running game script for the Browns, who are overwhelmingly favored by 13.5 points.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cleveland Browns to pass on 48.4% of their opportunities: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.
With a feeble 70.5% Adjusted Completion Rate (10th percentile) this year, Jerome Ford has been as one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among running backs.

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