Jerome Ford Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jerome Ford

NFL · Player Props

Jerome Ford

RB · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerome Ford Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns have called the most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 66.9 plays per game.
Jerome Ford ranks in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) with an astounding 16.5 mark this year.
The Cleveland O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
With a stellar 2.3 adjusted catches per game (75th percentile) this year, Jerome Ford ranks among the top running backs in the pass game in the league.
The Denver Broncos linebackers rank as the worst collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Browns to pass on 52.0% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Browns to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Denver Broncos, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.9 per game) this year.
With a poor 69.1% Adjusted Catch Rate (9th percentile) this year, Jerome Ford places as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football among running backs.

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