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Jerick McKinnon

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Jerick McKinnon has been a more integral piece of his offense's running game this year (19.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (4.5%).

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.

Jerick McKinnon has rushed for significantly more yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends profile as the 8th-best DE corps in football this year with their run defense.

The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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