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Jerick McKinnon

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.2 plays per game.

Jerick McKinnon has been a more integral piece of his team's run game this season (27.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (4.5%).

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 34.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this game.

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-least yards in football (just 89 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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