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Jerick McKinnon

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-109/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -121.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.

Jerick McKinnon has been a more important option in his team's running game this season (21.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (4.5%).

Jerick McKinnon has run for many more yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 34.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 4.14 yards-per-carry.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 6th-best group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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