Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-109/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.
Jerick McKinnon has been a more important option in his team's running game this season (21.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (4.5%).
Jerick McKinnon has run for many more yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 34.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 4.14 yards-per-carry.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 6th-best group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.