Jerick McKinnon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-111/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This year, the poor Patriots pass defense has yielded a staggering 89.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the highest rate in the NFL.
The Patriots safeties grade out as the 9th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
Jerick McKinnon's 11.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 18.0.
Jerick McKinnon's receiving talent has tailed off this year, accumulating a measly 2.0 adjusted catches compared to 3.3 last year.
Jerick McKinnon's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 81.5% to 76.3%.

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