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Jerick McKinnon
NFL · Player Props
Jerick McKinnon
RB · Kansas City Chiefs
Receptions
New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023 Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:16 AM UTC
NFL Props Jerick McKinnon Receptions

Jerick McKinnon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-111/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -111.

Favors Over
  • The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • This year, the poor Patriots pass defense has yielded a staggering 89.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the highest rate in the NFL.
  • The Patriots safeties grade out as the 9th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Favors Under
  • With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • Jerick McKinnon's 11.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 18.0.
  • Jerick McKinnon's receiving talent has tailed off this year, accumulating a measly 2.0 adjusted catches compared to 3.3 last year.
  • Jerick McKinnon's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 81.5% to 76.3%.
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