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Jerick McKinnon
NFL · Player Props
Jerick McKinnon
RB · Kansas City Chiefs
Receptions
Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023 Updated Sep 8, 2023 2:01 AM EST
NFL Props Jerick McKinnon Receptions

Jerick McKinnon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-103/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -136 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -103.

Favors Over
  • THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
  • THE BLITZ projects Jerick McKinnon to notch 4.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
  • Jerick McKinnon's 18.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 89th percentile for running backs.
Favors Under
  • The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
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