Jerick McKinnon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 21, 2023 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+126/-174).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -174.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Jerick McKinnon to garner 5.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a giant 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.

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