Jerick McKinnon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 15, 2022 11:50 PM EST

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+124/-167).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.6 plays per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense results when facing better conditions in this game.
THE BLITZ projects Jerick McKinnon to total 2.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the 5th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.