Jerick McKinnon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+118/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -166 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jerick McKinnon to earn 5.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Jerick McKinnon has been much more involved in his offense's passing offense this year (11.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.7%).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-least in football.
Jerick McKinnon's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 84.0% to 81.0%.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.