Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Jeffery Wilson has run for significantly more yards per game (61.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).
Jeffery Wilson's running efficiency has gotten better this season, averaging 5.33 yards-per-carry vs a mere 3.77 rate last season.
Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (158 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 8th-least run-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 35.6% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be much less involved in his offense's run game this week (24.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (46.6% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins have gone for it on 4th down a measly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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