Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jeffery Wilson has been much more involved in his team's run game this year (47.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (27.9%).
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
Jeffery Wilson has generated 55.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in football among running backs (76th percentile).
Jeffery Wilson's ground efficiency has been refined this year, totaling 5.27 yards-per-carry vs a mere 3.77 mark last year.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles profile as the 5th-worst DT corps in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will be starting backup QB Teddy Bridgewater in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 10th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
Jeff Wilson has been among the worst running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a measly 2.21 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 22nd percentile.

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