Jeff Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +175 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 63.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
With an impressive 42.3% Route Participation Rate (76th percentile) since the start of last season, Jeff Wilson has been among the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (93.1%) to RBs this year (93.1%).

Favors Under

Right now, the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
Jeff Wilson checks in as one of the weakest pass-catching RBs since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.9 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 23rd percentile among running backs.
Jeff Wilson has been one of the worst possession receivers in football when it comes to running backs, catching a measly 59.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 9th percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 4th-best unit in football this year with their pass rush.

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