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Jeff Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-136/+102).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -136.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.The Dolphins are a giant 13.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).The Miami Dolphins have run the least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.1 plays per game.The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.Jeffery Wilson has been among the weakest pass-game running backs this year, averaging a measly 0.8 receptions per game while checking in at the 20th percentile among RBs.Jeffery Wilson has been among the worst possession receivers in football among running backs, hauling in a mere 53.4% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 6th percentile.
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