Jeff Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+144/-189).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +152 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Dolphins are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Jeffery Wilson has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (44.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (25.6%).
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to accumulate 3.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Jeffery Wilson has been among the worst pass-game running backs this year, averaging a measly 0.5 receptions per game while ranking in the 14th percentile among running backs.
Jeffery Wilson has been among the most unreliable receivers in football among RBs, catching a measly 54.7% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 8th percentile.

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