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Jeff Wilson

Jeff Wilson Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins

Jeff Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+144/-189).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +152 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +144.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

The Dolphins are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Jeffery Wilson has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (44.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (25.6%).

THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to accumulate 3.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among running backs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.

The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Jeffery Wilson has been among the worst pass-game running backs this year, averaging a measly 0.5 receptions per game while ranking in the 14th percentile among running backs.

Jeffery Wilson has been among the most unreliable receivers in football among RBs, catching a measly 54.7% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 8th percentile.

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