Jeff Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Jeffery Wilson has run more routes this year (41.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (27.6%).
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (92.2%) versus running backs this year (92.2%).
The Cleveland Browns safeties rank as the 3rd-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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