Jeff Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Jeffery Wilson has run more routes this year (41.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (27.6%).
Jeffery Wilson has put up a whopping 3.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Jeffery Wilson has totaled substantially more receiving yards per game (14.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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