Jaylen Warren Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Touchdowns

New Orleans Saints vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 20, 2026 7:47 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-138/+113).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 4th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the most pass-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (65.8% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 132.6 offensive plays run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
The Steelers have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 58.8 plays per game.
The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3 points.
Opposing offenses teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the New Orleans Saints, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 32.7 per game) this year.
Jaylen Warren has posted a measly -7.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 11th percentile among RBs.
This year, the porous New Orleans Saints run defense has been torched for a colossal 1.83 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing squads: the highest rate in the NFL.

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