Jaylen Warren Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Touchdowns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 65.2% red zone pass rate.
Jaylen Warren's 20.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 10.5.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year.
Jaylen Warren grades out as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL among RBs, hauling in an impressive 95.7% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 98th percentile.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projections to call just 62.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased ground volume.
While Jaylen Warren has accounted for 21.7% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much less involved in Pittsburgh's pass game near the goal line in this game at 16.0%.
When talking about air yards, Jaylen Warren grades out in the paltry 8th percentile among running backs this year, with just -10.0 per game.
This year, the tough Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed a paltry 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.