Jaylen Warren Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Touchdowns

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-115/+111).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Steelers to pass on 58.7% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest clip among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Steelers to be the most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.2% red zone pass rate.
The model projects the Steelers offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.48 seconds per snap.
When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year.
Jaylen Warren comes in as one of the best possession receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, hauling in an outstanding 95.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 98th percentile.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) typically mean worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.
The projections expect Jaylen Warren to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game near the end zone in this contest (73.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (37.5% in games he has played).
The leading projections forecast Jaylen Warren to be a much smaller piece of his offense's air attack near the end zone in this contest (17.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (26.3% in games he has played).
When it comes to air yards, Jaylen Warren ranks in just the 18th percentile among running backs this year, totaling just -6.0 per game.