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Jaylen Warren Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+100/-103).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +104 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +100.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The leading projections forecast the Steelers to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop-off.While Jaylen Warren has garnered 86.7% of his team's red zone rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller part of Pittsburgh's run game near the goal line in this contest at 53.4%.Jaylen Warren has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 11.9% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 86th percentile when it comes to RBs.Jaylen Warren's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 89.6% to 92.9%.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Steelers are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.At the moment, the 8th-most run-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (46.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Steelers.The Steelers have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 49.6 plays per game.In regards to air yards, Jaylen Warren ranks in the lowly 23rd percentile among running backs this year, totaling just -3.0 per game.The Pittsburgh O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
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