Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 16, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 44.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaylen Warren has been a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this year (32.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (16.3%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football last year at opening holes for runners.
Jaylen Warren has rushed for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (42.0) this season than he did last season (23.0).
Jaylen Warren's running effectiveness (4.97 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (88th percentile among running backs).
Jaylen Warren grades out as one of the top RBs in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging an outstanding 3.94 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

Right now, the 10th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Steelers.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.

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