Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 9th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 43.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a giant 14-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 83 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The Buffalo Bills defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year with their run defense.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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