Jaylen Warren Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-117/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Jaylen Warren's 60.7% Route Participation% this year illustrates a meaningful boost in his passing offense volume over last year's 36.1% mark.
The leading projections forecast Jaylen Warren to accumulate 4.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to running backs.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year.
With a fantastic 2.1 adjusted catches per game (83rd percentile) last year, Jaylen Warren places among the leading pass-game running backs in the league.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projections to call just 62.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased ground volume.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's safety corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the NFL.

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