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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-127/+124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -192 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +124.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Steelers last year (a massive 59.6 per game on average).

The projections expect Jaylen Warren to garner 3.2 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among RBs.

Jaylen Warren has been a big part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 11.4% last year, which ranks in the 88th percentile among running backs.

With an impressive 2.6 adjusted receptions per game (83rd percentile) last year, Jaylen Warren places as one of the leading pass-game running backs in the league.

Jaylen Warren profiles as one of the best possession receivers in the league among running backs, completing an excellent 89.7% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 78th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite this week.

The projections expect the Steelers to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are predicted by the projections to call just 63.0 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.6 per game) last year.

The New York Jets linebackers rank as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league last year in defending receivers.

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