Jaylen Warren Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 2, 2023 11:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-166/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Steelers offense to be the quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.02 seconds per snap.
The predictive model expects Jaylen Warren to total 4.1 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Jaylen Warren has been a more important option in his team's pass attack this season (14.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (6.3%).
Jaylen Warren's pass-catching performance gotten a boost this season, compiling 3.7 adjusted catches vs just 1.8 last season.
The Titans pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (82.8%) to RBs since the start of last season (82.8%).

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on running than their normal game plan.
In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
Jaylen Warren's 82.5% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a significant reduction in his receiving skills over last year's 88.1% figure.

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