Jaylen Warren Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projection model to run 67.2 total plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
This week, Jaylen Warren is expected by the model to position himself in the 96th percentile among RBs with 5.6 targets.
Jaylen Warren's 17.1% Target% this season reflects a a material progression in his pass attack workload over last season's 6.3% figure.

Favors Under

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.5 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Steelers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Jaylen Warren's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 88.1% to 84.4%.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Baltimore's collection of safeties has been excellent this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.

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