Jaylen Warren Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 16, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+128/-167).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +141 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
In this contest, Jaylen Warren is expected by the projection model to slot into the 86th percentile among RBs with 4.6 targets.
Jaylen Warren's 13.5% Target Rate this season represents a material boost in his passing offense utilization over last season's 6.3% rate.
Jaylen Warren's 3.2 adjusted receptions per game this year indicates a substantial progression in his pass-catching skills over last year's 1.8 figure.

Favors Under

Right now, the 10th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Steelers.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.2 per game) this year.
The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Jaylen Warren's 82.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates an impressive decline in his pass-catching skills over last season's 88.1% mark.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (77.4%) versus RBs this year (77.4%).

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