Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 5:07 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.7% of their plays: the 4th-highest clip among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.70 seconds per play.
The Cleveland Browns defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (37.0 per game) this year.
Jaylen Warren has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (60.5% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (36.1%).
In this game, Jaylen Warren is forecasted by the model to secure a spot in the 84th percentile among RBs with 3.6 targets.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
When it comes to air yards, Jaylen Warren grades out in just the 6th percentile among RBs this year, accruing just -7.0 per game.
With a feeble 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) last year, Jaylen Warren rates among the best RB receiving threats in the league in picking up extra yardage.
The Cleveland Browns defense has given up the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 24.0) versus running backs this year.
This year, the strong Cleveland Browns defense has surrendered the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing running backs: a paltry 4.7 yards.