Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-139/+107).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by the model to call 65.5 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast Jaylen Warren to notch 5.3 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Jaylen Warren has been a more integral piece of his team's air attack this year (15.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (6.3%).
Jaylen Warren's 32.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season indicates a a material gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 14.0 mark.

Favors Under

The 7th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (only 54.6 per game on average).
Jaylen Warren has notched a meager -7.0 air yards per game this year: just 7th percentile among RBs.
The Steelers O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
With a feeble 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) this year, Jaylen Warren places as one of the leading pass-game RBs in the league in space.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has given up the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 21.0) to running backs this year.

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