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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week, Jaylen Warren is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 77th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.6 targets.

Jaylen Warren has been much more involved in his team's air attack this season (13.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (6.3%).

Jaylen Warren has compiled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (14.0).

The New England Patriots pass defense has been torched for the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (89.7%) to RBs this year (89.7%).

The New England Patriots safeties project as the 10th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 5.5 points.

Our trusted projections expect the Steelers as the 5th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 52.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by the projections to call only 63.6 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.

The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a measly 55.5 per game on average).

Jaylen Warren has notched a mere -8.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 5th percentile when it comes to running backs.

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