Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+118/-156).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -156.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers have been the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 6th-least in football.
The New Orleans Saints defense has allowed the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 27.0) versus running backs this year.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (72.5%) versus running backs this year (72.5%).
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against running backs this year, giving up 4.75 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the NFL.

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