Jaylen Warren Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 6:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.3 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.
After accounting for 16.3% of his offense's rush attempts last year, Jaylen Warren has been more involved in the rushing attack this year, currently sitting at 27.6%.
In regards to blocking for rushers (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Steelers profiles as the 10th-best in football last year.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Jacksonville's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Steelers have run the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.5 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

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