Jaylen Warren Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-122/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Steelers rank as the 10th-least run-oriented team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 36.6% run rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends profile as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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