Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Denver Broncos

Touchdowns

Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 15, 2026 8:22 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+290/-300).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in football in the red zone (60.5% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Denver Broncos.
In terms of a defense's effect on tempo, at 28.04 seconds per play, the model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-quickest in football (adjusted for context) at the moment.
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may suffer.
While Jaylen Waddle has received 16.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be much more involved in Denver's passing offense near the end zone this week at 21.4%.
This year, the stout Seahawks run defense has allowed a feeble 0.40 rushing TDs per game to the opposing side: the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.

Favors Under

After averaging 84.0 air yards per game last season, Jaylen Waddle has regressed heavily this season, currently boasting 59.0 per game.
Jaylen Waddle's 55.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 65.0.
When talking about pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Denver Broncos grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year.
Jaylen Waddle's 60.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a remarkable decrease in his receiving talent over last year's 63.9% mark.
This year, the tough Seahawks defense has surrendered a puny 59.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 7th-lowest rate in football.