Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Denver Broncos

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:52 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+217/-228).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 61.8% red zone pass rate.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Waddle to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the goal line in this contest (21.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.0% in games he has played).
When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored this week, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their usual game plan.
The 7th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Broncos this year (only 53.5 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.0 per game) this year.
Jaylen Waddle has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (68.0 per game) than he did last season (84.0 per game).
Jaylen Waddle's 57.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 65.0.