Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Denver Broncos

Touchdowns

San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+223/-233).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Broncos are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual game plan.
The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (61.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Broncos.
As far as a defense's effect on pace, at 27.85 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Broncos to be the 6th-quickest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.
The 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (34.1 per game) since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Jaylen Waddle's 55.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a material reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 63.9% mark.

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