Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 15, 2026 8:12 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In terms of a defense's effect on tempo, at 28.04 seconds per play, the model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-quickest in football (adjusted for context) at the moment.
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may suffer.
The projections expect Jaylen Waddle to earn 7.4 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Broncos have been the 6th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 57.9% pass rate.
Jaylen Waddle's 55.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 65.0.
When talking about pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Denver Broncos grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year.
Jaylen Waddle's 60.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a remarkable decrease in his receiving talent over last year's 63.9% mark.
This year, the tough Seahawks defense has surrendered a puny 59.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 7th-lowest rate in football.