Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2026

Updated Sep 30, 2026 7:22 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+106/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
As far as a defense's effect on pace, at 27.85 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Broncos to be the 6th-quickest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.
The 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (34.1 per game) since the start of last season.
In this contest, Jaylen Waddle is projected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.6 targets.
Jaylen Waddle's 65.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) ranks among the league leaders: 92nd percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

Jaylen Waddle's 55.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a material reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 63.9% mark.
The 49ers linebackers rank as the 4th-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.