Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.2% pass rate.
The leading projections forecast Jaylen Waddle to total 6.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among wideouts.
With an exceptional 4.3 adjusted catches per game (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Jaylen Waddle has been among the best pass-catching wide receivers in the league.
Jaylen Waddle's 74.2% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a an impressive boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 65.0% mark.
The Giants cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst group of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a giant 13-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
Jaylen Waddle has been a much smaller piece of his offense's passing offense this season (15.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (21.0%).
Since the start of last season, the imposing New York Giants defense has conceded a feeble 64.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 10th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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