Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+112/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to garner 7.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.2 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (63.0%).
The New England Patriots linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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