Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -154 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this week's game, Jaylen Waddle is anticipated by the predictive model to place in the 85th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.8 targets.
Jaylen Waddle has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 23.6% this year, which puts him in the 86th percentile among wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle checks in as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging an exceptional 5.2 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.
Jaylen Waddle's 68.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a material growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 65.0% mark.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (72.6%) to WRs this year (72.6%).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a huge 13.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Dolphins as the 3rd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see just 127.4 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.
The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.8 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher rush volume.

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